Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Official Swine Flu South Africa Stats - 12 August 2009

Death count... wait for it... 2.

Some say, a flash in the pan. Others say, this is how it starts.

We really dunno. SA Doc thinks the pandemonium is a bit OTT (over the top).


Scout said...

what distinguishes swine flu from regular flu in terms of mortality?

SA Doc said...

According to some sources, the annual rate of Influenza mortality is around 30 000 in the USA, yet only 477 have dies of confirmed H1N1 virus.


This information is quite difficult to work out. The disease centres don't keep mortality data for Influenza throughout the year. It is calculated at the end of the season with a statistical model using respiratory admissions (remember that most people don't usually have to test for influenza)

What we do have (because they keep track of it, is neonatal (baby) mortality data. In the US currently they have had 101 neonatal deaths from influenza viruses of which H1N1 was only associated with 3.

For south africa, I don't have the total mortality. We can see that we have had 2100/3626 positive tests for H1N1 - remember that we don't usually test people for influenza, so I am sure there are many more influenza's out there. And we have only had 6 deaths.

Also remember that this H1N1 virus has surfaced before in 1918, and 1951. Those pandemics were MUCH worse!

If you are interested in mortality and morbidity, there are a few great articles written like this one:

This is also an interesting read:

Maybe that helps put thing in perspective